MLB: AL Rookie of the Year

Polymarket Baseball › MLB Closes Dec 31 · $4.5K today · $1.7M traded · $10.6K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

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The odds

>99%Kevin McGonigle
  • Kevin McGonigle>99%▲ 1
  • Kazuma Okamoto<1%
  • Carter Jensen<1%
  • Samuel Basallo<1%
  • Trey Yesavage<1%
  • Munetaka Murakami<1%
  • Tatsuya Imai<1%
  • Chase DeLauter<1%
  • Connelly Early<1%
  • Carson Williams<1%
  • Dylan Beavers<1%
  • Travis Bazzana<1%
13 more
  • Colt Emerson<1%
  • Payton Tolle<1%
  • Walker Jenkins<1%
  • Carlos Lagrange<1%
  • Brice Matthews<1%
  • Spencer Jones<1%
  • Leo De Vries<1%
  • Max Clark<1%
  • Parker Messick<1%
  • George Lombard Jr.<1%
  • Sam Antonacci<1%
  • Gage Jump<1%
  • Tristan Peters<1%

How the odds have moved

Kevin McGonigle: 94% on Oct 20, >99% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Why it moved

  1. Nov 4, 11 PM ETKevin McGonigle: 89% → 97%

    No headline about it in the hours around this move.

The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Kevin McGonigle >99% ▲ 1 100¢ 100¢ $76.6K
Kazuma Okamoto <1% 0¢ $232K
Carter Jensen <1% 0¢ $95.1K
Samuel Basallo <1% 0¢ $2.5K
Trey Yesavage <1% 0¢ $3.9K
Munetaka Murakami <1% 0¢ $67.5K
Tatsuya Imai <1% 0¢ $833
Chase DeLauter <1% 0¢ $5.4K
Connelly Early <1% 0¢ $71.8K
Carson Williams <1% 0¢ $432K
Dylan Beavers <1% 0¢ $1.5K
Travis Bazzana <1% 0¢ $5.7K
Colt Emerson <1% 0¢ $2.5K
Payton Tolle <1% 0¢ $199K
Walker Jenkins <1% 0¢ $64K
Carlos Lagrange <1% 0¢ $66.3K
Brice Matthews <1% 0¢ $141K
Spencer Jones <1% 0¢ $38.2K
Leo De Vries <1% 0¢ $112K
Max Clark <1% 0¢ $63.4K
Parker Messick <1% 0¢ $11K
George Lombard Jr. <1% 0¢ $231
Sam Antonacci <1% 0¢ $231
Gage Jump <1% 0¢ $5
Tristan Peters <1% 0¢ $361

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: AL Rookie, Kevin McGonigle, Kazuma Okamoto

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No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Baseball. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Baseball, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Baseball index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Baseball Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions