Positional Scarcity in Fantasy Baseball

By 4Baseball Staff · November 5, 2026 · 10 min read

Positional scarcity means a good catcher or middle infielder is worth more than the same stats at a deep position. Learn how to measure it, with real position counts from 2019 and 2025, and when to pay for it.

Positional scarcity is the idea that a statistic is worth more when it comes from a position where good players are hard to find. Twenty-five home runs from a catcher add the same 25 home runs to your total as twenty-five from a first baseman, but they are harder to replace, because the pool of catchers who hit that well is far smaller. The practical result is that in most fantasy drafts the catcher and the shortstop cost more than their raw numbers suggest, and the outfielder who produces the same numbers costs less.

That sounds like a rule, but it is better understood as a question you ask each season: how much better is this player than the best one I could pick up for free at the same position? The answer changes with your league's size, the number of starting slots, the scoring format and the real talent of the year. This article explains the concept, shows how to measure it, uses a count of regulars by position from the historical record for 2019 and 2025, and gives a way to decide when to pay for scarcity and when to wait.

What scarcity actually measures

Start with replacement level. In any fantasy league, some players are rostered and the rest sit on the waiver wire. The best player available on the wire at a given position is the replacement for that position, and his production sets the baseline. A hitter's value is his production minus the replacement's production at his position. That is the meaning of "value over replacement," and it is the core of every auction value formula and most draft rankings.

Scarcity is simply the observation that the replacement is not the same at every position. If the waiver wire at first base has a player who will hit 22 home runs, and the wire at catcher has one who will hit 10, then a catcher who hits 22 gives you twelve more home runs than your alternative, while a first baseman who hits 22 gives you none. The two players produced the same stat, and one is worth much more to your roster.

A worked example, with invented numbers that show the mechanics rather than any real projection. Suppose a 12-team league starts one catcher and one first baseman per team. That means 12 catchers and 12 first basemen are rostered at the start, and the 13th best at each position is the replacement. Suppose the projected replacement catcher is a .245 hitter with 12 home runs, 50 runs and 50 runs batted in, and the projected replacement first baseman is a .255 hitter with 22 home runs, 70 runs and 75 runs batted in. Now compare two players projected for identical lines: .270, 25 home runs, 85 runs and 85 RBI.

The catcher is worth far more to a roster than the first baseman, even though the two have the same projection. A drafter who ignores position would treat them as equals and wait for the first baseman, but a drafter who understands scarcity would take the catcher a round or two earlier. That is the whole logic. The rest of this article is about knowing how large the gap really is.

Why catcher is the scarcest position

Catcher is scarce for two reasons that have nothing to do with fantasy. First, catching is physically demanding, so teams rest their catchers more than they rest any other position player. A catcher who plays 120 games is an everyday player by the standards of the position, while a first baseman who plays 120 is a part-timer. Second, teams have historically valued catchers for defense and game-calling, so a catcher whose bat is weak still gets playing time. The result is that many catchers are on the field, but few of them hit well and play enough to be worth a starting spot in a fantasy lineup.

The historical record lets you see this. For each season, I assigned every player to the position at which he appeared in the most games, and kept those with at least 60 games there. I then counted how many of them had at least 450 plate appearances, which is roughly what an everyday player gets. Here is the 2025 count and the average production of those regulars.

The number to look at is the catcher's second column. In 2025, 45 players caught at least 60 games, the biggest group at any position, but only 13 reached 450 plate appearances. That is fewer than the 21 first basemen, 21 left fielders and 27 shortstops who did. In a 12-team league that starts one catcher, you need 12 of those 13, which leaves almost nothing on the wire. In 2019 the same count was 8 catchers with 450 plate appearances against 21 first basemen.

Two cautions about this table. First, it is my own computation from the historical data, using a simple rule for primary position, and it is not an official classification. Players who split time across positions can land in either row. Second, the catcher averages are inflated by selection. Only the better hitters get 450 plate appearances behind the plate, so the 21.8 home runs is the average of the survivors, not of catchers as a group. That is exactly why scarcity exists: the good-hitting catchers are few, and anyone who hits like a first baseman is rare.

The middle infield: scarcity of a different kind

Second base and shortstop are scarce in a more specific way. Teams treat them as defensive positions, so there is a steady supply of middle infielders who can field but whose bats are weak. In 2025 the second basemen with 450 plate appearances averaged 16.1 home runs and the shortstops 16.7, the two lowest averages in the table, against 23.2 for right fielders.

But the picture is more complicated than "middle infielders do not hit." Shortstops led the table in stolen bases, at 18.2 per player, and had the largest group of regulars, 27. In fantasy categories where speed counts, the shortstop position is a source of steals, and a shortstop who also hits 25 home runs is scarce because few players combine the two. The same data for 2019 showed a different shape: shortstops with 450 plate appearances averaged 20.9 home runs and 11.7 steals, so the position's power fell and its speed rose between the two seasons. Third base moved too: 24 third basemen reached 450 plate appearances in 2019 and averaged 27.2 home runs, while 18 did in 2025 and averaged 19.5. The lesson is that the scarcity map is not fixed. Last year's position rankings tell you where talent was, not where it will be.

Scarcity also depends on what you count. In a league scored on batting average and steals, a speedy shortstop may be worth more than his home runs suggest. In a league scored on on-base percentage and home runs, he is worth less. For how each category rewards different skills, see fantasy baseball categories explained.

Your league sets the scarcity

Scarcity is a function of settings, not of the sport alone.

• League size. In a 10-team league that starts one catcher, ten catchers are rostered; in a 15-team league, fifteen are, and the wire runs dry sooner. The deeper the league, the more scarcity bites at every position.
• Starting slots. A league that starts two catchers needs 24 of them in a 12-team format, more than the 13 regulars in the 2025 count above. In that league, catchers become the most expensive position by a wide margin.
• Flexible slots. Utility slots, corner infield and middle infield slots let you start a first baseman at third or a shortstop at second. They spread demand and reduce scarcity for the positions they cover. Check whether your league has them before you build a plan.
• League pool. In an AL-only or NL-only league, half the players are unavailable, so the pool at each position is smaller and scarcity grows.
• Scoring format. In points leagues, positions are scored on a common scale, and scarcity shows up as the gap between a position's top players and the replacement in points. For the differences between formats, see roto, head-to-head and points leagues compared.
• Position eligibility. Most platforms give a player a position if he appeared at it a minimum number of games in the previous season, with a lower threshold during the current season, but the numbers vary by platform and league. Read your league's rules. A player who gains catcher eligibility mid-season, or who loses it, changes the scarcity picture for everyone.

How to find the cliffs

The question that matters at the draft table is not "is this position scarce?" but "how far does the quality fall after this player?" Rank the players at each position by projected value. Where the drop between one player and the next is small, you can wait. Where it is large, you have found a cliff.

A simple method works with any projection list.

1. For each position, list the top players down to the number your league will start, plus a few.
2. Compute the gap between the best and the last starter at that position, in a category you care about or in total value.
3. Compare the gaps across positions. The position with the steepest drop is where waiting costs you the most.
4. Note where the drop happens. If the top three catchers are far above the rest, and the fourth through twelfth are about equal, the decision is simple: take one of the top three or wait until the others are gone, because the middle of the pack is interchangeable.

The mistake in the middle is paying a premium for the last good player at a position. If the 10th catcher on your list is projected nearly the same as the 14th, then taking him in the 10th round when the 14th will be available in the 14th is a waste of draft capital. The point of scarcity is to avoid the bottom of the barrel, not to pay a top price for the player just above it.

Strategies that follow

Pay for the top tier when the cliff is steep. If one or two catchers or shortstops are clearly better than everyone else at the position, and the next group is far below, take one. The premium is real in those cases.

Wait when the tiers are flat. If you see a long run of similar players at a position, let others reach for the first few and take someone later. Fantasy drafters often make this mistake in the other direction, filling the position early because the roster has a hole.

Use depth at deep positions as currency. Outfield and first base tend to have many regulars, so you can find production there late. Spend early picks on scarce positions and fill the deep ones later, but stay aware of category needs. A lineup of catchers and shortstops without power or speed at the corners still needs to win categories.

Count the bench. In leagues with a bench, a second catcher is not usually worth carrying, because the backup is also a part-timer. Use the bench for injuries and for hitters at deep positions, where the replacement is cheap.

Be careful with multi-position players. A player eligible at more than one position adds flexibility and is worth a little more than his raw numbers, but it is not worth overpaying for. The flexibility is most valuable when your roster is thin at the scarce position and the player can fill it.

Remember that pitchers have their own scarcity. Saves are scarce in a different way, which is covered in how to value closers and saves. Starting pitchers can be rotated, and the waiver wire produces streamers; see streaming pitchers and two-start pitchers and weekly lineups.

Common mistakes

• Drafting by position in order. Filling slots in the order they appear on the screen ignores the cliffs.
• Using last year's scarcity map. The 2019 and 2025 tables above differ for shortstops and third basemen. The talent moves.
• Confusing playing time with value. A catcher with 300 plate appearances may have a good rate stat but cannot help much in counting categories. Playing time is part of value.
• Forgetting the DH. The designated hitter has been universal since 2022, so some good hitters have no field position in real life, and fantasy platforms handle them differently. Check how yours does.
• Ignoring the settings page. The number of catcher slots, the utility slots and the eligibility thresholds change the answer more than any ranking list.

Common questions

Is catcher always the scarcest position? It has been in most recent seasons when measured by regulars. The count of catchers with 450 plate appearances was 8 in 2019 and 13 in 2025, the lowest of any position in both years. But the answer changes with league settings: in a league with a flexible utility slot and no second catcher, the scarcity is smaller than in a two-catcher league.

Should I always draft a catcher early? No. Draft one early only if the top tier is clearly better than the rest and your league starts two. Otherwise, take a middle-tier catcher late and spend the early picks where the gaps are largest.

What about relief pitchers? Saves are scarce, but the scarcity is about role, not position. Closers change often, and the waiver wire supplies replacements during the season. The article on closers goes into the details.

Does scarcity matter in points leagues? Yes, if the positions score differently in practice. Catchers score fewer points because they play fewer games, so the points gap between the top catcher and the replacement is the scarcity figure.

How do I find the data for my own league? The fantasy section of this site collects tools, and the leaders pages let you sort by position-adjacent categories. For reading a player's line in a box score, see how to read a baseball box score.

Where to go next

Scarcity is one lens on value; categories and format are the others. Read fantasy baseball categories explained and roto, head-to-head and points leagues compared next, then check the fantasy baseball topic page for current news that moves the rankings.