Two-Start Pitchers and Weekly Lineups
How to find starting pitchers who make two starts in a fantasy scoring week, why the schedule math works, when the extra start is worth the ratio risk, and how weekly and daily lineup locks change the decision.
A two-start pitcher is a starting pitcher whose team's schedule gives him two turns in the same fantasy scoring week. In a league that scores Monday through Sunday, that usually means he pitches early in the week and again at the end of it. For the manager, the appeal is plain: a second start doubles the chance to collect strikeouts, wins and quality starts from one roster spot, and in a weekly head-to-head league that doubled volume can decide a matchup.
The appeal is also where the mistakes begin. A second start doubles the upside and it doubles the damage, because every inning pitched feeds the weekly earned-run average and WHIP. A mediocre pitcher with two starts can lose a week for you by himself, and a great pitcher with one start can win it. Deciding which of those you are looking at is the whole skill.
This article covers the arithmetic of the rotation, how to find two-start pitchers before the week begins, how the lineup lock changes your choices, and a framework for deciding when to start the two-start pitcher and when to leave him on the bench. All of it is general strategy: nothing here depends on a particular season's numbers, and the examples are labeled as illustrations.
Why some weeks give a pitcher two starts
Most major-league teams use five starting pitchers in a repeating order, and most teams play six or seven games in a Monday-through-Sunday week. If a team plays all seven days, it has seven starts to hand out among five pitchers. Five of them get one start each, and the other two starts go to the first two pitchers in the order, who come around again. That is the whole mechanism.
The pattern rotates. Here is a seven-game week for a team with starters labeled A through E, who pitch in that order:
| Week | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Two-start pitchers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A | B | C | D | E | A | B | A, B |
| 2 | C | D | E | A | B | C | D | C, D |
| 3 | E | A | B | C | D | E | A | E, A |
| 4 | B | C | D | E | A | B | C | B, C |
| 5 | D | E | A | B | C | D | E | D, E |
Over five weeks, each pitcher gets exactly two double-start weeks. A pitcher in an unbroken five-man rotation is a two-start pitcher in about two weeks out of five, or 40 percent of the time. This is the baseline. Real schedules drift from it for the reasons below, but the table is the right starting picture.
Why the real week looks different
Several things break the clean pattern.
Off days. Teams do not play every day. A team with a Monday off day has only six games in the week and five starters, so only one pitcher doubles, and a team with two off days may have nobody. Off days also let a manager skip the fifth starter, shifting the order. The league schedule shapes the whole week, and a scoring week that includes the All-Star break or a holiday can look nothing like the table.
Rainouts and doubleheaders. A postponement removes a start from the schedule or pushes it to a later date, and a pitcher scheduled for two starts can be left with one. Doubleheaders add games and can add starts, though the extra game often goes to a spot starter or a minor-league call-up. Either way, a two-start plan for a rain-prone city or a cold-weather April has a lower success rate than the same plan in a domed stadium.
Six-man rotations and skipped turns. Some teams run six starters at stretches of the season, particularly for pitchers returning from injury or on innings limits, and some skip a fifth starter whenever an off day allows. Others use an "opener," a reliever who starts the game and pitches an inning or two before a longer man follows. An opener is a start in the official record, but the pitcher who follows him is the one doing the work, and fantasy leagues vary in how they credit it. Check your league's rules.
Injuries and demotions. A pitcher can be scratched from a start with an injury or a minor illness, and a struggling starter can be pushed back a day or sent down. The listed two-start pitcher on Sunday night is a forecast, not a guarantee.
All of this is a reason to treat "two starts" as a probability. A starter who is scheduled for two turns has perhaps a good chance of making both, a small chance of making neither because of an injury, and a real chance of making one. A manager who values the second start at full value every time overpays.
Finding two-start pitchers before the week begins
The method is simple enough to do by hand, and it is worth knowing even if your platform provides a list.
- Get each team's games for the scoring week. The site's schedule page lists the games by date. Count the number of games and note any off days.
- Find each starter's most recent outing. Note the date of his last start and how many days of rest he had.
- Project the next start. A starter on a five-man rotation with a normal turn pitches again on the fifth day after his last start. If he pitched last Sunday, the next start falls on Friday, and the one after that on the following Wednesday. A start on Monday or Tuesday of the new week points to a second start late in the week.
- Check the published probable pitchers. Teams announce probable starters a few days ahead, and the lists change. The probable pitchers for the end of the week are the least reliable.
- Look for risk. Check the weather forecast for outdoor parks, any injury news, and any hint of a six-man rotation or an innings limit.
The key date is the start of the week. A pitcher who starts on Monday or Tuesday has a clean path to a second start on Saturday or Sunday, as long as the team plays on those days. A pitcher who starts on Wednesday or later cannot make two starts without his team using a four-day turn, which is rare.
Weekly lock or daily lock
How your league locks lineups changes the decision a great deal.
In a weekly lock league, you set your lineup before the first game of the week and it stays fixed until the next week. If you start a pitcher in his two-start week, you have committed to both starts, and you cannot change your mind after the first one goes badly. Your decisions are made on forecasts, so the risk of a rainout, an injury, or a changed rotation falls on you. The upside of weekly locks is that the manager who understands the schedule has an edge over the one who does not.
In a daily lock league, you set your lineup each day and a pitcher can be started, benched or dropped between his two turns. The two-start pitcher is less of a gamble, because you can start him on Monday and decide on Saturday whether to keep him in. A daily league also lets you use the bench and the waiver wire in the middle of the week. The cost is time: daily lineups need daily attention.
Many leagues have a middle path, such as weekly acquisition limits or a cap on the number of starts or innings in a week. Read those rules before building a strategy around two-start pitchers. A cap on starts, for example, can make a third or fourth two-start pitcher worth nothing.
The ratio problem
The decision gets harder when the league scores ERA and WHIP, which are ratios. A ratio is a rate, so a pitcher's contribution depends on how many innings he throws, and a second start doubles the innings. Here is an illustration with made-up numbers, not real pitchers.
Assume the rest of your staff has pitched 30 innings in the week, allowing 10 earned runs, 28 hits and 9 walks. That is a 3.00 ERA and a 1.233 WHIP. You can add one of two pitchers:
- Pitcher X, a two-start pitcher of average ability. Start one: 6 innings, 2 earned runs, 5 hits, 2 walks. Start two: 5 innings, 4 earned runs, 7 hits, 3 walks. Total: 11 innings, 6 earned runs, 12 hits, 5 walks, and about 13 strikeouts if he averages six or seven a start.
- Pitcher Y, an ace with one start. 7 innings, 1 earned run, 4 hits, 1 walk, and perhaps 9 strikeouts.
Adding Pitcher X gives your staff 41 innings and 16 earned runs, an ERA of 3.51, and 54 baserunners, a WHIP of 1.317. Adding Pitcher Y gives your staff 37 innings and 11 earned runs, an ERA of 2.68, and 42 baserunners, a WHIP of 1.135. If your opponent's ratios fall between those, Pitcher Y wins you both ratio categories and Pitcher X loses them. Pitcher X, though, wins the strikeouts, 13 to 9, and has more chances at a win.
The example does not say that one choice is right. It says that the answer depends on which categories you are trying to win this week. If you are already comfortable in ERA and WHIP, the two-start pitcher's volume is a cheap way to collect strikeouts. If your ratios are close, a risky arm can lose them.
In a points league that rewards innings and strikeouts and penalizes runs, hits and walks linearly, the problem is simpler: a second start is almost always worth more than a single start from a pitcher of similar skill. The ratio problem disappears because nothing is a rate. The risk is a bad outing that costs points, but it is a loss of points and not a ratio swing.
When to start him, and when to sit him
A workable set of rules for a two-start pitcher in a weekly-lock league:
Start him when he is a good pitcher, because the second start amplifies the skill. The best pitchers with two starts are the best plays in fantasy, and no one needs a framework to start them. Start him also if the matchups are favorable, both starts are at home or in pitcher-friendly parks, and you need the volume in strikeouts or wins.
Sit him when he is a poor pitcher in a ratio league, because the second start doubles the damage. Sit him if either start is against a strong offense in a hitter-friendly park and your ratios are close. Sit him when the second start depends on a team skipping its fifth starter or the weather.
The gray zone is the pitcher of average quality with two moderate matchups. In a points league, start him. In a category league, make the decision by category: if you need strikeouts and wins and can afford to lose a point in the ratios, start him; if the week turns on ERA and WHIP, bench him and consider a safer one-start arm.
One more principle: in a daily-lock league the two-start pitcher is worth more to you than in a weekly-lock league. You can start him for the first turn and bench him for the second if the matchup sours, and optional value is worth more than forced value.
Reading the matchups
The same pitcher is not the same in each start. Four things are worth a look:
- Opponent. A lineup that strikes out often is better for a pitcher's strikeout total, and a lineup that walks often is worse for his WHIP.
- Park. Some parks help hitters and some help pitchers, so a pitcher at home in a pitcher's park is a safer bet than the same man in a hitter's park.
- Home or away. A pitcher who starts at home twice has an easier week than one who starts on the road twice, though the effect is modest.
- Rest and workload. A pitcher coming back from an injury may be on a pitch count, which limits how long he pitches and so how many strikeouts and wins he can collect.
None of these overturns a clear difference in skill. They decide close calls.
Building a roster around the schedule
Managers who do well in weekly leagues often think of their pitching staff as a set of slots to fill with the best schedule available, not as a fixed group. That means picking up a two-start pitcher before the week and dropping him after, which is a form of the strategy covered in streaming pitchers in fantasy baseball. The waiver rules matter here: if you have a limited number of adds, or a bidding budget as described in the FAAB and waiver wire guide, spend them with the schedule in mind.
Closers and relievers fit into the plan differently, since they are not subject to the two-start calculation. A reliever with a good ratio helps you in the ratios without risking a bad start, which is part of the logic in how to value closers and saves. A staff with a few reliable relievers can afford to start a two-start pitcher in the ratio-risk spots.
Common mistakes
- Treating the schedule as a certainty. A two-start pitcher is a forecast. Check the probable pitchers again on the weekend.
- Counting only the volume. Two starts of a bad pitcher is not twice the value. In a ratio league it can be negative.
- Ignoring the lock. A weekly lock turns a flexible decision into a fixed one.
- Chasing the label. Do not start a pitcher only because a list marks him as a two-start option. The list does not know the matchup, the park or the manager's plans.
- Forgetting your own record. Check which categories you are winning on Monday. A manager already leading by a margin in ERA should protect it.
Common questions
How often does a pitcher make two starts in a week? In an unbroken five-man rotation with seven games a week, about two weeks in five. Off days, rainouts and six-man rotations lower the rate.
Is a two-start pitcher always worth starting? No. In a category league with ratios, a weak pitcher's second start can hurt more than it helps.
What if my league has a daily lock? You can start him for the first game and decide about the second later, which makes the two-start pitcher a lower-risk choice.
What counts as a quality start? At least six innings pitched and no more than three earned runs allowed. A two-start week raises the number of chances to earn one.
Where do I find the schedule? The schedule page lists each team's games by date, and your league platform will show probable pitchers a few days ahead.
Where to go next
If you are building a weekly strategy, read the streaming guide and the waiver wire guide. Browse the site's fantasy pages for more tools, and the fantasy baseball topic page for the latest news that can change a pitcher's week.