How Scouts Grade Prospects: The 20-80 Scale
How scouts grade prospects on the 20-80 scale: what 50, 60 and 70 mean, how tools like hit and power are graded, how present and future grades differ and why the scale cannot predict careers.
When a scouting report says a prospect has a 60 bat, 55 power, a 70 arm and a 45 glove, it is using the 20-80 scale, the shared language of baseball evaluation. The scale runs from 20 at the bottom to 80 at the top, a grade of 50 means average for a major leaguer, and every 10 points is a large step. It lets a scout in Arizona and an executive in New York talk about the same player without a lecture, and it lets a reader of a prospect list see what a ranking is made of.
The scale is also widely misread. A 50 is not a mediocre player: it is a player who is average among the few hundred people good enough to hold major-league jobs, which makes him a very good athlete by any normal standard. A 20 is not a bad player either, just a bad tool. This guide explains what the numbers mean, how the individual tools are graded, how present and future grades differ, how a report turns tool grades into one overall number, and where the system breaks down. It does not print benchmark tables of velocities or sprint times, because those vary by organization and change over time; check a club or a reputable ranking for them.
What the numbers mean
The 20-80 scale is built on a simple idea. Take the population of players in the major leagues, call the middle of it 50, and measure how far above or below it a tool falls. In statistical terms the scale is commonly described as having the shape of a T-score, in which the mean is 50 and each 10 points is one standard deviation. A 60 is one standard deviation above the major-league mean, a 70 is two and an 80 is three. Because the major-league pool is already a tiny, selected group, a 70 or 80 is rare even among professionals.
Scouts do not compute standard deviations in the stands. They carry in their heads a set of reference players for each grade, and they compare. The grades are written in steps of five, and some reports use a plus or minus. Here is the usual reading of each grade.
| Grade | Common label | Rough meaning for a major-league regular |
|---|---|---|
| 80 | Elite | Among the best in the sport at this skill |
| 70 | Plus-plus | An All-Star-level strength |
| 60 | Plus | A clear strength, better than most regulars |
| 55 | Above average | Better than the typical regular |
| 50 | Average | What a typical major leaguer shows |
| 45 | Slightly below average | Playable, but a weakness |
| 40 | Below average | A weakness that limits a role |
| 30 | Poor | A significant flaw |
| 20 | Very poor | Almost no ability at this skill |
Most prospects have grades from 30 to 60 on most tools, and a report that gives a player an 80 on anything is making a notable claim. The scale is not meant to be applied uniformly: a grade of 40 on speed is a minor matter for a first baseman and a larger one for a center fielder.
The tools of a hitter
For position players, scouts grade five tools: hit, power, run, arm and field. Each is a separate question, and a player can be strong in one and weak in another. The five tools explained covers them in detail; here is how each shows up on the scale.
Hit is the ability to make contact and produce a batting average. It covers bat speed, barrel control, pitch recognition and the ability to adjust, and it is graded on how well the player will hit against major-league pitching, not how he hit against younger opponents. It is the hardest tool to project, because it depends on skills like pitch recognition that develop and decay.
Power is often given two grades: raw power, the maximum the player can produce in batting practice or on his best swings, and game power, how much of that shows up against real pitchers. A hitter with 70 raw power and 50 game power has strength he cannot yet use because he swings and misses too much or hits the ball on the ground.
Run is speed, measured with a stopwatch on the bases or on a sprint, and graded against benchmarks that scouts know by heart. Speed matters for baserunning, for range in the field, and for infield hits. The grade does not cover baserunning instincts, which are a separate skill.
Arm is throwing strength, and, at some positions, accuracy. A 70 arm is the profile of a right fielder or a catcher who controls the running game. The tool is measured by velocity from the outfield or across the infield, and by how it plays in games.
Field is the glove: range, hands, footwork and reliability. It is graded in the context of the position, because a center fielder and a first baseman face different tests.
Career statistics sometimes show what a top-of-scale tool looks like when it becomes results. In the historical record, Tony Gwynn collected 3,141 hits at a .338 average and struck out only 434 times in 9,288 at-bats, a hitter whose contact skill was exceptional. Barry Bonds hit 762 home runs and drew 2,558 walks, a combination of power and plate discipline that few have matched. Rickey Henderson stole 1,406 bases, the most in the data and 468 more than Lou Brock's 938, and scored 2,295 runs. Ichiro Suzuki collected 3,089 hits in the major leagues with 509 stolen bases and ten Gold Gloves, a profile that combines contact, speed and defense. None of these numbers is a scouting grade, and the sheet does not tell us what any scout wrote about them, but they illustrate how a tool at the top of the scale appears in the record.
The tools of a pitcher
A pitcher is graded on a different set of attributes. The usual list is each pitch, command and control, and sometimes delivery or durability.
- Fastball is graded on velocity, movement and life, and on how well the pitcher locates it. Two pitchers with the same velocity can have very different fastball grades, because a pitch that moves or comes from an unusual angle is harder to hit.
- Breaking balls and changeup are each graded separately: curveball, slider, cutter, changeup, splitter. A pitcher with one 70 pitch and nothing else can be a high-leverage reliever, while a starter usually needs at least three useful pitches.
- Command is the ability to put the ball where the catcher asks, and control is the ability to throw strikes. They are related but not identical. A pitcher can throw strikes, which is control, and still miss his spots within the zone, which is command.
A pitcher's report ends with a projection of his role: starter, reliever or closer. The common view among scouts is that a starter needs a repeatable delivery and enough stamina and pitch mix to turn over a lineup three times, and a pitcher who lacks these is moved to the bullpen, where fewer grades are needed.
Present and future grades
Almost every prospect report shows two numbers for each tool, separated by a slash or listed in separate columns. The first is the present grade, what the player can do now. The second is the future grade, what he is expected to do at his peak. A 19-year-old shortstop might be a 40/55 hitter, meaning he is below average now but projected to be above average in a few years.
The gap between the numbers is a measure of projection. A large gap means a lot of development has to happen, and a lot can go wrong. A small gap in a player who is already close to the majors means there is less to hope for and less to fear. That is why a college player who is a 50/50 on a tool is a more reliable bet than a high school player who is 30/60, although the second player has a higher ceiling.
Age and level matter. A 22-year-old who is dominating Double-A with a 45 present bat is a different case from a 17-year-old who is a 45 present bat in rookie ball. The scale is supposed to measure the tool, not the context, but good scouts adjust for the level of competition and the player's age.
From tools to one overall number
Reports usually end with a single number called future value, or FV, which condenses the tools into a judgment of what kind of player this will be. It is not the average of the tool grades. Instead the scout weights the tools by position: a shortstop's glove and arm count for more than a first baseman's, a first baseman's bat counts for more than a center fielder's.
The commonly used translation of FV into roles goes roughly like this. A 40 is a reserve or a bullpen arm. A 45 is a useful bench player or a fringe starter. A 50 is an average regular. A 55 is an above-average regular who is among the better players at his position. A 60 is an All-Star-caliber player. A 70 and above is a franchise-level star. Different outlets draw the lines slightly differently, and the translation is a convention, not a measurement.
Here is a hypothetical example. A scouting report grades a shortstop at 45 hit, 40 power, 60 run, 70 arm and 60 field, with future grades of 55 hit, 45 power, 55 run, 70 arm and 60 field. A plain average of the future grades is 57, which suggests a strong player, but a scout will not simply average. Shortstop is a position where glove and arm carry the weight, so the 60 field and 70 arm count for much, while the bat grades, though modest, are good enough for a middle infielder. A reasonable overall might be 55 or 60, depending on how the scout views the bat. The point is that the overall is a judgment, and two scouts can disagree by 5 points while agreeing on every tool.
Risk, and why the number alone is not enough
An FV says what the player will be if he reaches his potential. It does not say how likely that is. Many reports add a risk rating, such as low, medium, high or extreme, that reflects the odds of reaching the grade. A college hitter in Triple-A with a 50 FV and low risk is more valuable than a teenager in the Dominican Summer League with a 55 FV and extreme risk, because the first player is very likely to be a major-league regular and the second is a long shot.
The reasons for the risk vary: injuries, which are not predictable; mechanics that haven't been fixed; a player's age relative to his level; and the limited track record of young players in rookie leagues. History also supports caution: why prospects bust looks at the odds that a prospect reaches the majors at all.
How scouts assign the grades
The process is more human than the numbers suggest. A scout watches a player multiple times, in different conditions, against different opponents, and writes a report after each. Some measurements are objective: stopwatch times, radar-gun velocities, and, increasingly, tracking data from cameras and bat sensors. Others are judgments about hands, instincts, approach and makeup. The scout then sets a grade by comparing what he saw with players he knows.
Organizations combine many reports. A cross-checker, a more senior scout, goes to see the best prospects in person to confirm or revise the grade. The player development staff add their own data, and a ranking is then made. The publications and websites that produce public prospect lists do something similar, using sources inside clubs, their own viewings and the available data, which is explained in how prospect rankings are made.
The draft is the most visible place the scale is used. Clubs build their boards by grade and make selections from them, and the order of the early picks, shaped by the process described in the MLB draft lottery explained, determines who gets first choice of the highest grades. The MLB draft and prospects topic page collects the latest coverage.
Where the scale fails
The 20-80 scale is useful, but it has limits that a reader should keep in mind.
- It is subjective. Two scouts can grade the same player differently, and there is no audit that says who is right. Public rankings are an aggregation of opinions.
- It is anchored to a moving target. The major-league average changes. The league's average strikeout rate has risen over time, so a 50 hit tool today means something different from a 50 hit tool decades ago.
- It compresses information. A single number for hit or power hides the shape of the skill: whether a hitter's power is to the pull side, whether he hits better against left-handed pitching, whether his approach is patient.
- It can't see development. The gap between present and future is a guess about coaching, work habits and luck.
- It ignores context. A grade tells you nothing about a player's role on a specific team.
None of this makes the scale useless. It makes it a first draft of an argument, and the best readers of prospect reports treat the grades as the opening of a conversation about what could go right and wrong.
How to read a public prospect report
When you see a report on a prospect, check these things in order. First, the age and level: how old is he and against whom is he playing? Second, the present and future grades: where is the gap largest? Third, the position: which tools matter most there? Fourth, the risk rating or description: does the report think this is a likely outcome or a hope? Fifth, the comparison: public reports often give a major-league comparison, which tells you the writer's mental reference rather than a forecast.
Common questions
What does a 50 mean? Average for a major leaguer at that tool. It is not a poor grade.
Is an 80 realistic? It is rare. Most prospects who receive an 80 on a tool do so for one skill, such as raw power or arm strength, and not for the whole package.
Why 20 to 80 and not 1 to 10? The 20-80 range has the shape of a T-score, with a mean of 50, which gives scouts room to separate fine differences, and the fives give a convenient granularity.
Do all teams use the same scale? Most use some form of it, with their own definitions, so a 60 at one club may be a 55 at another.
Does a higher grade guarantee success? No. Grades describe expected ability, and many players with high grades never reach the majors.
Where to go next
For the individual tools, read the five tools explained, and for how the grades turn into a ranking, read how prospect rankings are made and why prospects bust. To follow the players behind the grades, browse the minor league pages and the college baseball pages.