How Prospect Rankings Are Made
What goes into a top-100 prospect list: tools, performance, age against level, health, signing pedigree and proximity to the majors, why the lists disagree, and how to read one without over-trusting the number.
A prospect ranking is an opinion with a method behind it. There is no official list and no governing body that issues one; every ranking is produced by a publication or a team of evaluators who watch players, talk to scouts and front-office sources, and then agree on an order. That is why the same minor leaguer can be 12th on one top-100 list and 40th on another, and why both lists can be defensible. Understanding the inputs lets a reader see what the number is claiming and what it is leaving out.
This article walks through the factors, from raw tools to age, health and proximity to the majors, shows how they trade off against each other with worked examples, and explains why the lists disagree. It does not rank any real player. The point is to give you a way to read a list, whether you follow your club's farm system, play dynasty fantasy baseball or simply want to know what "ceiling" means.
Who counts as a prospect
Lists usually include players who still have rookie status. Under the major-league rules, a player keeps rookie status until he has exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors, or has spent 45 days on a major-league active roster outside the injured list. Time spent in the minors does not count, so a player can be a "prospect" while sitting at Triple-A, and a player who has just been called up and hits well still belongs on the list until he passes one of those thresholds.
The definition also explains the usual shape of a top 100. The names near the top are often players who are close to the majors and have a high ceiling, and the names further down include teenagers who may be four or five years away. The list mixes players at very different stages of development, so a ranking is always a statement about both quality and distance.
The tools, graded on a scale
The starting point is the player's tools, graded on the 20-80 scale that scouts use. A grade of 50 is major-league average, 60 is plus, 70 is well above average and 80 is among the best in the game, while 20 is the bottom of the scale. The tools for a position player are hitting, power, running, arm and fielding, and for a pitcher the pitches themselves (fastball, breaking balls, changeup) plus command. For the full system, see how scouts grade prospects on the 20-80 scale and the five tools explained.
Evaluators grade two things for each tool: what it is now and what it is expected to become. A hitter might have a present hit grade of 40 and a future grade of 55, meaning he is expected to improve with age and training. The future grades are combined, weighted by what matters for the player's position or role, into an overall grade, often called future value. Some outlets publish that figure beside the rank. As a rough guide, a future value of 50 projects an average regular and 60 a star-level player.
Performance: what the statistics add
Scouting tells the evaluator what a player could do; the numbers show what he has done. Rankers look at batting averages, on-base and slugging figures, strikeout and walk rates for hitters, and strikeout, walk and home-run rates for pitchers. The statistics matter most as confirmation. A hitter with a loud bat grade who strikes out in 35 percent of his plate appearances at Double-A has a problem that the tool grade did not predict. A pitcher whose velocity grades well but who walks batters at a high rate will be marked down on command.
Raw minor-league statistics need adjusting, and the adjustments are a large part of the craft. Ballparks differ; some leagues and parks inflate hitting, especially at higher altitudes or in small ballparks. Levels differ: a .300 average at Single-A is a different achievement from a .300 average at Triple-A. And samples are small, so a good six weeks can mean less than a solid two seasons. Evaluators therefore tend to compare a player's performance to his league and to the other players his age.
Age against level
The adjustment that changes more rankings than any other is age relative to level. A 19-year-old who is holding his own in Single-A is facing opponents who are, on average, several years older. A 24-year-old with the same line is facing opponents closer to his own age. The first player is almost always ranked higher.
Here is a worked example with hypothetical players. Prospect A is 19 and has hit .270 with good power at Low-A, against pitchers who are roughly 21 or 22 on average. Prospect B is 24 and has hit .300 at Double-A, where the typical pitcher is about his own age. On the numbers, B is better. On the ranking, A may be ahead, because his rate of improvement is expected to be faster and because he has more time to grow. The ranker is asking not "who has done more?" but "who is more likely to become a good major leaguer?"
Health and makeup
Injury history is part of the grade. A pitcher who has had elbow surgery, or who has repeated shoulder problems, is graded for risk as well as stuff, and his rank will reflect the fact that his expected career is shorter. Hitters have injury risks too, though the picture is less stark than for pitchers.
Makeup is a softer category: work ethic, adaptability, ability to learn, response to failure. It is difficult to measure and impossible to prove, and some evaluators distrust it. But scouts have long argued that players with similar tools can end up with different careers depending on how they respond to coaching, and a prospect's makeup grade can move him a few spots on a list.
Pedigree, signing bonus and position
Where and how a player entered the system carries information. A high draft pick or a large international signing bonus reflects the judgment of a club's scouts, who saw the player at his best before the numbers existed. See international amateur signings for how the Latin American market works. Rankers do not simply copy the club's judgment, since they follow their own scouts and sources. But a first-round pick who has not performed gets longer to prove himself than an undrafted free agent who has done the same.
Position matters in two ways. Some positions are scarcer: a shortstop or a catcher who can hit is worth more than a first baseman with the same bat, because the defensive side of the position is hard to find. And a player's defensive home may change. A shortstop who is expected to outgrow the position becomes a third baseman or an outfielder, and his bat has to carry him.
Proximity and the arrival date
The estimated time of arrival, usually abbreviated ETA, is the year a prospect is expected to reach the majors. Rankers weigh it because a prospect who is nearly ready has less risk to survive. A player who is one step from the majors has already passed the hardest tests. A 17-year-old in the Dominican Summer League has not.
That is the main reason top-100 lists can look different from a list of the most talented players. A ranker who prizes ceiling will put a high-upside teenager ahead of a polished Triple-A player. A ranker who prizes proximity will do the opposite. Neither is wrong, because each reflects a view of how to handle uncertainty, and the weights that a given outlet applies are its signature.
Pitchers and hitters on the same list
A single ranking has to compare pitchers with hitters, which is difficult. A top pitching prospect and a top hitting prospect are not graded on the same tools, and the risks are different. Pitchers get hurt more often, and a pitcher's development can be derailed by one operation. Hitters face a different test: many of them look strong until they meet better pitching and have to prove they can recognize it.
Most evaluators handle this by building the risk into the grade rather than by setting a quota. A pitcher with an excellent fastball and an unproven changeup might receive a high ceiling and a high risk grade, and the combination places him below a hitter with a lower ceiling and a safer profile. This is also why the highest-ranked pitchers on a list tend to combine velocity with command and a clean health record, not velocity alone.
There is also the question of role. A pitcher expected to start is worth far more than one who will relieve, because a starter contributes more innings. If a prospect's third pitch is weak, the ranker may project him as a reliever, and his rank drops.
How a list is actually assembled
The process varies by outlet, but it generally follows the same sequence. Scouts and writers see players during the season, in games and at events, and they talk to people in the game who have seen more of them: scouts from other organizations, coaches, executives. The evaluators write reports and assign grades. Then the staff meets, or exchanges ranked lists, and the individual orders are averaged or negotiated into one. The ties and close calls are resolved by discussion, which is why the written report is the more reliable part of the product.
A team's own top-30 list is built the same way but is easier, because it covers fewer players and a single organization, and the evaluator can see the whole system. A league-wide top 100 is harder, because the ranker has to compare a shortstop in one organization with a left-hander in another. The resulting list is best read as a consensus of informed opinion with real uncertainty at every position.
A summary of the factors
| Factor | The question it answers | Typical evidence | Main weakness |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tools | What can he do at his best? | Scouting grades on the 20-80 scale | Subjective; different scouts see different players |
| Performance | What has he done? | Minor-league statistics, adjusted for league and park | Small samples; level and park distortions |
| Age against level | How quickly is he developing? | Age compared with the league average | Late bloomers are undervalued |
| Health | How long will he last? | Injury history, medical reports | Hard to see from outside a club |
| Makeup | Will he keep improving? | Scout and coach reports | Impossible to verify |
| Pedigree | What did the first scouts think? | Draft slot, signing bonus | Reflects the market as well as talent |
| Proximity | How soon and how surely? | Level, ETA | Can favor the polished over the gifted |
Why the lists disagree
Several things produce different orders for the same players. Each outlet has its own staff, and scouts do not see the same games. Each weights the factors differently, so one list leans toward ceiling and another toward readiness. The lists are produced at different times, and a prospect's stock moves quickly: a strong month raises a ranking, and an injury drops it. And some lists give extra weight to numbers from pitch-tracking and bat-tracking technology, which many teams now use, while others lean on traditional scouting.
For a reader the useful move is to compare lists. A player who appears near the top of every list is probably there for solid reasons. A player who is first on one list and 50th on another is a case where the evaluators disagree, and the written reports will usually explain why. The reports are more informative than the number.
How accurate are the rankings?
Rankings are better than chance and far from certain. Players at the top of a list reach the majors more often and become stars more often than players at the bottom, but even the top ten contains players who never become regulars. The reasons are the same ones described in why prospects bust: injuries, failure to adjust to better pitching, and the simple fact that predicting a 20-year-old's future is hard. A ranking is a probability statement dressed as an order.
That is also why one should read the grade or the description and not only the rank. The gap between the 10th and the 11th prospect is usually tiny, while the gap between the 10th and the 60th can be large.
Using rankings: three suggestions
- Read the report. The paragraph that explains a player's strengths and risks tells you more than his position on the list.
- Match the list to your purpose. A fantasy manager in a dynasty league cares about ceiling and ETA. A fan of a club cares about who will help the team in the next two years. Those are different questions.
- Watch the events where prospects face the best competition. Events during and after the season put many prospects on the field against one another. See the Arizona Fall League and the Futures Game for how those events work.
Common questions
Who decides the official ranking? Nobody. Each publication builds its own list. Teams also keep internal rankings they do not publish.
Does a high ranking guarantee a major-league career? No. It raises the odds, but injuries and failure to adjust remove players at every level.
Why do rankings change in the middle of a season? New information arrives: performance, health, and what scouts see. A list that never moved would not be using it.
Do rankings include players from other countries? Yes. Players signed as international amateurs are included, and many of the top prospects in any year come from Latin America.
Where to go next
Current farm-system coverage is on the minor leagues pages and the MLB draft and prospects topic page. For how a player's tools are translated into numbers, read the 20-80 scale and why prospects bust, and for the October stage these players hope to reach, see how the MLB postseason works.